our THEORY OF CHANGE

our VISION to 2025

  • Accepted economic and informatics methodologies and metrics are used to systematically describe and share data on the burden of animal disease
  • Local estimates of the burden of animal disease for early case study countries, driving optimization of investment decisions in animal health activities which in turn lead to improved efficiency of production, and increase household income of small-scale producers
  • Global estimates of burden of animal disease at the sector level focusing on those of key importance in terms of feeding people and using scarce environmental resources (e.g. broiler, dairy, swine)
  • Estimates of the burden of animal disease on human health from zoonoses, food safety-related issues and malnutrition

our VISION to 2030

  • Methodology embedded in international code of practice
  • Adoption and use of the methodology by countries and private companies to prioritise investments and evaluating interventions
  • Metrics used to describe and compare burden of animal disease as it changes over time, by region and production system and the impact on individuals with different gender and socioeconomic status
  • GBADs data and metrics are available as input for analyses of One Health issues (interaction among humans, animals, plants and the planet)
  • GBADs application taught by centres of excellence

the HOW

Themes

Livestock are part of an economic system therefore the evaluation of the burden of animal disease must be placed in an economic context that captures livelihood and wider economy impacts as well as externalities related to the environment and human health.

The complexity of this endeavour requires it to be broken into Themes which are linked and highlighted below. GBADs will assess the location and importance of the livestock Populations and Production Systems, collecting and collating information on the input and output relationships of livestock production. This information will be the basis for estimating the health loss envelope for different species and production systems (Production Loss and Expenditure) due to the presence of disease and other health or nutritional problems.

The health loss envelope will be attributed to specific causes of disease, based on existing knowledge and new studies, adjusted for co-morbidities and other health problems through careful Animal Health Ontology and Attribution. The health loss envelope will include information on production loss and expenditure at farm-level and will be used as a parameter to determine the wider societal impacts of the disease through modelling work (Wider Economic Impacts and Trade). Additional information on the direct and indirect impacts on Human Health will also feature. The data and information generated will be held in a secure Informatics system which will enable modelling for Disease Prioritization as well as tools for the effective communication of results. Each theme will be supported by Engagement with countries, Private Sector and NGOs through the collection of animal production and health data and information sharing for animal health decision making. Alongside each theme will be a process of institutionalizing the GBADs methods through an Education programme; this will result in a global knowledge framework to assess the impact of animal disease and health problems in livestock. These education programmes will be supported by the development of a code of practice for using biological, disease and economic data for assessing animal disease impacts and a guide on livestock population estimations and their classification by species and production system.

Case Studies

The GBADs methods will be applied to case studies which will be conducted at production system, regional, country and sector levels. Each study will follow a common structure, producing outputs that can be compared and contrasted, while tailoring activities to the local situation. This work will provide invaluable feedback for the GBADs programme about the approach needed to maximise the utility and impact of future case studies.

 

CAPITALIZING on

GBADs will build on existing data collection systems such as OIE-WAHIS and FAOSTAT, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s investments in data collection analysis such as SEBI and GALVmed, plus private sector databases and combine the data with other relevant datasets and sources. GBADs will work with international organisations, international finance organisations and associated development banks, regional actors, national governments, NGOs and private companies to ensure continued stakeholder engagement.